Changing Ocean Research Unit

List of publications

Selected recent publications


Daw, T. M., Coulthard, S., Cheung, W. W. L, Brown, K., Abunge, C., Galafassi, D., Peterson, G. D., McClanahan, T. R., Omukoto, J. O., and Munyi, L. (2015). Evaluating taboo trade-offs in ecosystems services and human well-being. PNAS: doi/10.1073/pnas.1414900112.

Cheung, W.W.L., Brodeur, R.D., Okey, T.A., Pauly, D. (2015) Projecting future changes in distributions of pelagic fish species of Northeast Pacific shelf seas. Progress in Oceanography. 130, 19-31

Cheung, W. W. L. and Sumaila, U. R. (2015) Economic incentives and overfishing: a bioeconomic vulnerability index. Marine Ecology Progress Series. DOI: 10.3354/meps11135

Christensen, V., Coll, M., Buszowski, J., Cheung, W. W. L., Frölicher, T., Steenbeek, J., Stock, C.A., Watson, R.A., and Walters, C.J. (2015). The global ocean is an ecosystem: simulating marine life and fisheries. Global Ecology and Biogeography 24(5): 507-517.

Queirós, A. M., Fernandes, J. A., Faulwetter, S., Nunes, J., Rastrick, S. P .S., Mieszkowska, N., Artioli, Y., Yool, A., Calosi, P., Arvanitidis, C., Findlay, H.S., Barange, M., Cheung, W .W. L., and Widdicombe, S. (2015). Scaling up experimental ocean acidification and warming research: from individuals to the ecosystem. Global Change Biology 21(1): 130-143.

Sumaila, U. R., Lam, V. W. Y., Miller, D. D., Teh, L., Watson, R.A., Zeller, D., Cheung, W. W .L., Côté, I. M., Rogers, A. D., Roberts, C., Sala, E., and Pauly, D. (2015). Winners and losers in a world where the high seas is closed to fishing. Nature Scientific Report 5: doi:10.1038/srep08481

Jones, M.C. and Cheung, W.W.L, (2014). Multi-model ensemble projections of climate change effects on global marine biodiversity. ICES Journal of Marine Science. DOI: 10.1093/icesjms/fsu172.

Jones, M.C., Dye, S.R., Pinnegar, J.K., Warren, R., Cheung, W.W.L. (2014). Using scenarios to project the changing profitability of fisheries under climate change. Fish and Fisheries. DOI: 10.1111/faf.12081.

Lam, V.W.Y., Cheung, W. W. L., and Sumaila, U.R. 2014. Marine capture fisheries in the Arctic: winners or losers under climate change and ocean acidification? Fish and Fisheries. DOI: 10.1111/faf.12106.


Mcowen, C.J., Cheung, W.W.L, Rykaczewski, R.R., Watson, R.A., and Wood, L.J. (2014). Is fisheries production within Large Marine Ecosystems determined by bottom-up or top-down forcing? Fish and Fisheries. DOI: 10.1111/faf.12082.

Merino, G., Barange, M., Fernandes, J.A., Mullon, C., Cheung, W., Trenkel, V., and Lam, V. (2014). Estimating the economic loss of recent North Atlantic fisheries management. Progress in Oceanography. doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2014.04.022

Marques, A., Pereira, H.M., Krug, C., Leadley, P.W., Visconti, P., Januchowski-Hartley, S.R., Krug, R.M., Alkemade, R., Bellard, C., Cheung, al., (2014). A framework to identify enabling and urgent actions for the 2020 Aichi Targets. Basic and Applied Ecology, 15: 633-638.

Tittensor, D.P., Walpole, M., Hill, S.L.L., Boyce, D.G., Britten, G.L., Burgess, N.D., Butchart, S.H.M., Leadley, P.W., Regan, E.C., Alkemade, R., Baumung, R., Bellard, C., Bouwman, L., Bowles-Newark, N.J., Chenery, A.M., Cheung, al., (2014). A mid-term analysis of progress toward international biodiversity targets. Science, 346: 241-244.

Srinivasan, U.T., Cheung, W.L., Watson, R., Sumaila, U.R., (2014). Response to removing biases in forecasts of fishery status. Journal of Bioeconomics, 16: 221-222.

Pauly, D., D. Belhabib, R. Blomeyer, Cheung, A. Cisneros-Montemayor, D. Copeland, S. Harper, V. Lam, Y. Mai, F. Le Manach, H. Österblom, K.M. Mok, L. van der Meer, A. Sanz, Antonio, S. Shon, U.R. Sumaila, W. Swartz, R. Watson, Y. Zhai, and D. Zeller (2014) China’s distant-water fisheries in the 21st century. Fish and Fisheries. 15: 474-488.

Leadley, P., Proença, V., Fernández-Manjarrés, J., Pereira, H.M., Alkemade, R., Biggs, R., Bruley, E., Cheung, W., Cooper, D., and Figueiredo, J. (2014). Interacting Regional-Scale Regime Shifts for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services. Bioscience: 64(8): 665-679.


Cheung, W. W. L., R. Watson, D. Pauly (2013) Signature of ocean warming on global marine fisheries. Nature 497(7449): 365-368.

Cheung, W. W. L., J. L. Sarmiento, D. Pauly (2013) Approaches to modeling and projecting climate change effects on marine ecosystems and fisheries. ICES Journal of Marine Sciences 70(6): 1069-1074.

Cheung, W. W. L., Sarmiento, J.L., Dunne, J., Frölicher, T., Lam, V., Palomares, M.L.D., Watson, R., Pauly, D. (2013) Shrinking of fishes exacerbates impacts of global ocean changes on marine ecosystems. Nature Climate Change 3: 254-258.

Fernandes, J., W. L. Cheung, S. Jennings, T, Frölicher, M. Barange, A. Grant (2013) Integrating trophic interactions into projecting distribution changes in marine fishes and invertebrates. Global Change Biology 19: 2596-2507.

Jones, M. C., R. Dye, J. K. Pinnegar, R. Warren, W. W. L. Cheung (2013) Applying distribution model projections in the present for an uncertain future. Aquatic Conservation: Marine and Freshwater Research. DOI: 10.1002/aqc.2364.

Jones, M. C., R. Dye, J. K. Pinnegar, R. Warren, T. Froclicher, J. FernandesW. W. L. Cheung (2013) Assessing the impacts of climate change on threatened species in the North Sea. PLoS One. 8(1): e54216. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0054216.

Kerby, T. K., W. L. Cheung, C, van Oosterhout, G. H. Engelhard (2013). Wondering about wandering whiting: Distribution of North Sea whiting between the 1920s and 2000s. Fisheries Research 145: 54-65.

Cheung, W. W. L., Y. J. Sadovy, M. T. Braynen, L. G. Gittens (2013). Are the last remaining Nassau grouper (Epinephelus striatus) fisheries sustainable? The case in the Bahamas. Endangered Species Research 20: 27-39.

Pitcher, T.J. and W. L. Cheung (2013) Fisheries: Hope or Despair? Marine Pollution Bulletin. 74: 506-516

Booth, S., J. Hui, Z. Alojado, V. Lam, W. L. Cheung, Dirk Z., D. Steyn and D. Pauly (2013) Global deposition of airborne dioxin. Marine pollution bulletin.75: 182-186.

Teh, L., W. L. Cheung, R. Sumaila (in press) Time discounting and exploration of coral reefs. Marine Resource Economics. DOI 10.1007/s100640-01309674-7

Miller, C., G. Murno, U. R. Sumaila, W. L. Cheung (2013) Governing marine fisheries in a changing climate: a game theoretic perspective. Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics 61: 309-334

Sumaila, U. R., A. Dyck, W. L. Cheung (2013) Fisheries subsidies and potential catch loss in SIDS Exclusive Economic Zones: food security implications. Environment and Development Economics 18: 427 – 439.

Rogers, P.J., C. Huveneers, S. D. Goldsworthy, W. L. Cheung, K. G. Jones, J. G. Mitchell, and L. Seuront (2013) Population metrics and movement of two sympatric carcharhinids: a comparison of the vulnerability of pelagic sharks of the southern Australian gulfs and shelves. Marine and Freshwater Research 64(1) 20-30.


Cheung, W. W. L., J. J. Meeuwig, M. Feng, E. Harvey, V. Lam, T. Langolis, D. Slawinski, C. Sun and D. Pauly (2012) Climate change induced tropicalization of marine communities in Western Australia. Marine and Freshwater Research 63(5): 415-427

Watson, R., W. W. L. Cheung, J. A. Anticamara, U. R. Sumaila, D. Zeller, D. Pauly (2012) Global marine yield halved as fishing intensity redoubles. Fish and Fisheries: DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-2979.2012.00483

Cheung, W. W. L., J. Pinnegar, G. Merino, and M. Barange (2012) Impacts of marine climate change on fisheries in the UK and Ireland. Aquatic Conservation: Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems 22(3): 368-388.

Kerby, T., W. W. L. Cheung and G. Engelhard (2012) Great Britain’s role in North Sea demersal fisheries: a long-term perspective over the past century. Review in Fish Biology and Fisheries (In press).

Metcalfe, J. D., W. Le Quense, W. W. L. Cheung and D. A. Righton (2012) Conservation physiology for applied management of marine fish: an overview with perspectives on the role and value of telemetry Philosophical Transaction of the Royal Society 367(1596): 1746-1756.

Brotz, L., W. W. L. Cheung, K. Kleisner, E. Pakhomov and D. Pauly (2012) Increasing jellyfish populations: trends in Large Marine Ecosystems. Hydrobiologia 690(1): 3-20.

Lam, V., W. W. L. Cheung and R. Sumaila (2012) The economic, food and nutritional security implications of climate change in West Africa through fisheries. African Journal of Marine Sciences 34(1): 103-117

Sadovy de Mitcheson, Y., M. T. Craig, A. A. Bertoncini, K. E. Carpenter, W. W. L. Cheung, J. H. Choat, A. S. Cornish, S. T. Fennessy, B. P. Ferreira, P. C. Heemstra, M. Liu, R. F. Myers, D. A. Pollard, K. L. Rhodes, L. A. Rocha, B. C. Russell, M. A. Samoilys and J. Sanciango (2012) Fishing groupers towards extinction: A global assessment of threats and extinction risk in a billion dollar fishery. Fish and Fisheries DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-2979.2011.00455.x.

Gutt, J., D. Zurell, T. J. Bracegridle, W. W. L. Cheung, M. S. Clark, P. Convey, B. Danis, B. David, C. D. Broyer, G. d. Prisco, H. Griffiths, R. Laffont, L. S. Peck, B. Pierrat and M. Riddle (2012) Correlative and dynamic species distribution modelling for ecological predictions in the Antarctic: a cross-disciplinary concept. Polar Research 31, 11091: 

Sumaila, U. R., Andrés M. Cisneros-Montemayor, A. Dyck, L. Huang, W. W. L. Cheung, J. Jacquet, K. Kleisner, V. Lam, A. McCrea-Strub, W. Swartz, R. Watson, D. Zeller, and D. Pauly. (2012) Impact of the Deepwater Horizon well blowout on the economics of US Gulf fisheries. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 69: 499-510.

Jones, M., S. Dye, J. Pinnegar, R. Warren and W. W. L. Cheung (2012) Modelling commercial fish distributions: prediction and assessment using different approaches. Ecological Modelling 225:133-145.

Norse, E. A., S. Brooke, W. W. L. Cheung, M. R. Clark, I. Ekeland, R. Froese, K. M. Gjerde, R. L. Haedrich, S. S. Heppell, T. Morato, L. E. Morgan, D. Pauly, R. Sumaila and R. Watson (2012) Sustainability of deep-sea fisheries. Marine Policy 36:307-320.


Cheung, W. W. L., J. Dunne, J. L. Sarmiento and D. Pauly (2011) Integrating eco-physiology and plankton dynamics into projected changes in maximum fisheries catch potential under climate change in the Northeast Atlantic. ICES Journal of Marine Science 68: 1008-1018.

Sumaila, U. R., W. W. L. Cheung, V. W. Y. Lam, D. Pauly and S. Herrick (2011) Climate change impacts on the biophysics and economics of world fisheries. Nature Climate Change 1:449-456.

Ainsworth, C. H., J. F. Samhouri, D. S. Busch, W. W. L. Cheung, J. Dunne, and T. A. Okey (2011) Potential impacts of climate change on Northeast Pacific marine foodwebs and fisheries. ICES Journal of Marine Science 68:1217-1229.

Coll, M., C. Piroddi, C. Albouy, F. Ben Rais Lasram, W. W. L. Cheung, V. Christensen, V. S. Karpouzi, F. Guilhaumon, D. Mouillot, M. Paleczny, M. L. Palomares, J. Steenbeek, P. Trujillo, R. Watson and D. Pauly (2011) The Mediterranean Sea under siege: spatial overlap between marine biodiversity, cumulative threats and marine reserves. Global Ecology and Biogeography:10.1111/j.1466-8238.2011.00697.x.

Sumaila, U. R., J. Alder, G. Ishimura, W. W. L. Cheung, L. Dropkin, S. Hopkins, S. Sullivan and A. Kitchingman (2011) US Marine Ecosystem Habitat Values. In: Ommer, R. E., Perry, R. I., Cochrane, K. and Cury, P. (eds.). World Fisheries: A Social-Ecological Analysis Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford.

Cheung, W. W. L., J. Meeuwig and V. W. Y. Lam (2011). Ecosystem-based Fisheries Management in the face of climate change. In: Christensen, V. and Maclean, J. (eds.). Thinking Big About Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.


Cheung, W. W. L., V. W. Y. Lam, J. L. Sarmiento, K. Kearney, R. Watson, D. Zeller, and D. Pauly (2010) Large-scale redistribution of maximum catch potential in the global ocean under climate change. Global Change Biology 16: 24-35.

Pereira, H.M., P. W. Leadley, V. Proença, R. Alkemade, J. P. W. Scharlemann, J. F. Fernandez-Manjarrés, M. B. Araújo, P. Balvanera, R. Biggs, R.,  W. W. L. CheungL. Chini, H. D. Cooper, E. L. Gilman, S. Guénette, G. C. Hurtt, H. P. Huntington, G. M. Mace, T. Oberdorff, C. Revenga, P. Rodrigues, R. J. Scholes, U. R. Sumaila and  M. Walpole (2010). Scenarios for global biodiversity in the 21st Century. Science 330: 1496-1501.

Barange, M., W. W. L. Cheung, G. Merino and R. I. Perry (2010) Modelling the potential impacts of climate change and human activities on the sustainability of marine resources. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 2:326-333.

Srinivasan, U. T., W. W. L. Cheung, R. Watson, and U. R. Sumaila (2010). Food security implications of the Global Potential Catch Losses due to Overfishing. Journal of Bioeconomics 12: 183-200.

Stock, C. A., M. A. Alexander, N. A. Bond, K. M. Brander, W. W. L. Cheung, E. N. Curchitser, T. L. Delworth, J. P. Dunne, S. M. Griffies, M. A. Haltuch, J. A. Hare, A. B. Hollowed, P. Lehodey, S. A. Levin, J. S. Link, K. A. Rose, R. R. Rykaczewski, J. L. Sarmiento, R. J. Stouffer, F. B. Schwing, G. A. Vecchi, and F. E. Werner (2010) On the use of IPCC-class models to assess the impact of climate on Living Marine Resources. Progress In Oceanography 88:1-27.


Cheung, W. W. L., C. Close, K. Kearney ,V. Lam, J. Sarmiento, R. Watson and D. Pauly (2009). Projections of global marine biodiversity impacts under climate change scenarios. Fish and Fisheries 10: 235-251.

Cheng, J., W. W. L. Cheung, and T. J. Pitcher (2009) Mass-balance ecosystem model of the East China Sea. Progress in Natural Science 19:1271-1280.

Christensen, V., C. J. Walters, R. Ahrens, J. Alder, J. Buszowski, L. B. Christensen, W. W. L. Cheung, J. Dunne, R. Froese, V. Karpouzi, K. Kaschner, K. Kearney, S. Lai, V. Lam, M. L. D. Palomares, A. Peters-Mason, C. Piroddi, J. L. Sarmiento, J. Steenbeek, R. Sumaila, R. Watson, D. Zeller, and D. Pauly (2009) Database-driven models of the world’s Large Marine Ecosystems. Ecological Modelling 220:1984-1996.

Sumaila, R. and W. W. L. Cheung (2009). Vulnerability and sustainability of fish stocks worldwide: with emphasis on fish stocks within the Commonwealth. In: Bourne, R. and Collins, M. (eds). From Hook to Plate: The State of Marine Fisheries. A Commonwealth perspective. Commonwealth Foundation, London. pp. 195-210.

Zeller, D., W. Cheung, C. Close and D. Pauly (2009). Trends in global marine fisheries – a critical view. P. 55-77 In: P. Wrammer, H. Ackefors and M. Cullberg (eds.) Fisheries, trade and development. Royal Swedish Academy of Agriculture and Forestry, Stockholm.


Cheung, W. W. L., C. Close, V. W. Y. Lam, R. Watson and D. Pauly (2008). Application of macroecological theory to predict effects of climate change on global fisheries potential. Marine Ecology Progress Series 365: 187-197.

Cheung, W. W. L., V. Lam, and D. Pauly (2008) (eds.). Modelling Present and Climate-shifted Distributions of Marine Fishes and Invertebrates. Fisheries Centre Research Reports 16(3).

Cheung, W. W. L. (2008). The economics of post-doc publishing. Ethics in Science and Environmental Politics 8: 41-44.

Louise T., W. W. L. Cheung, R. Sumaila, A. Cornish and C. Chu (2008). Alternative livelihoods for Hong Kong’s fishers. International Journal of Social Economics 35: 380-395.

Cheung, W. W. L. and T. J. Pitcher (2008). Evaluating the status of exploited taxa in the northern South China Sea using intrinsic vulnerability and spatially explicit catch-per-unit-effort data. Fisheries Research 92: 28-40.

Cheung, W. W. L. and U. R. Sumaila (2008). Trade-offs between conservation and socio-economic objectives in managing a tropical marine ecosystem. Ecological Economics 66: 193-210.

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